Not Yet Dead

The feature spec market ain’t what it used to be. How do agents and managers play the spec game today?

“You might get lucky (going out with a ‘naked’ script,) but more often than not, the response is going to be, hey, that’s really cool; come back to us with a package.” — Zach Cox, Circle of Confusion

This is an update of an article I wrote for The Wrap in 2018.

Ah, the ’90s. Headlines of huge spec sales and bidding wars filled the trades — which were printed on paper. The spec screenplay had replaced the Great American Novel as the pastime everyone and his uncle was working on. If you could write a halfway decent actioner or rom/com, you had a shot.

Yeah, not so much today. According to Gointothestory.com, there were 173 spec sales in 1995… but less than 50 in 2025, depending on which source you believe. Still, a marked increase from 2023’s paltry 11 spec sales (you read that right.)

But do those numbers tell the whole story? “There was a long period when financiers weren’t buying as much,” says UTA agent Alex Rincon. “In the last 18 months, they have perhaps looked at their development slates and realized there was not as much original development as they had hoped and got slightly more aggressive.”

Indeed, things do seem to be at least modestly heating up. Heck, Verve partner David Boxerbaum is positively upbeat. “It’s a really great time to have an original piece of material that can be sold in the marketplace,” he says. “Buyers like Amazon, Netflix, as well as the studios, their appetite for content is at an all-time high right now.”

The Teeny-Tiny Bull’s-Eye

Great, so time to dust off that Peloponnesian war drama on your shelf? Maybe not. “The marketplace isn’t open to certain genres,” warns Boxerbaum. Manager Jake Wagner from Alibi elaborates: “The genres that seem to be working at the box office are horror and animated family movies. But the only genre a writer could really write on spec is horror, and, traditionally, horror specs don’t go for a lot of money; horror budgets are typically not that high, $5 million or so.” In other words, smaller payday, less incentive for reps to hustle.

Fortunately, there is room for other genres. “A lot of places are buying straight-up action,” says Rincon. “And believe it or not, there’s a healthy spec market for — I’ve seen a bunch of musicals and live-action family in development.” CAA motion picture lit agent Adam Perry, who sold the family adventure script “Harry’s Hamburgers” to Warner Brothers in a high six-figure deal when he was at APA, says, “There is definitely a lack of that type of material at the studios, especially that’s not IP-based. Writers haven’t been speccing that kind of material for years because it hasn’t been selling.” But with a powerful agent with a rep for selling specs like Perry behind it, a family adventure has got a shot. He adds, “Netflix has also been grabbing these up in the wake of losing Disney. Over these next two or three years, I think there’s going to be a lot of success selling these big original family films.”

And while it is rare for a studio to buy an animation feature spec, they do occasionally buy animation pitches. “That’s much more challenging from an emerging screenwriter,” says Rincon, “but from established screenwriters with track records from TV or elsewhere, those transactions occur almost frequently, as there is such a demand for animated stories.”

As for writers who don’t write in those genres? Fortunately, Wagner feels that streaming companies can take more risks, “because it’s not dependent on the box office. The big studios won’t really touch comedy and drama right now, but Netflix might come in and take something off the table, which is great — but some of the others aren’t as active.”

I’m Expecting a Package

Some specs take a while to get traction; others drop like a cluster bomb. Wagner says, “With each piece of material, (we) have a very custom-tailored plan, as opposed to, when I started in the business, you took one script out to thirty producers who went to 15 territories.” Deals seldom come together in just a few days anymore, he feels. “It’s more like you have to piece it together. Get the right producer, do some more work on the script, get the right director, do some more work on the script, maybe even get an actor as the icing on top – and then go to specific buyers. Sure, you want to make it as competitive as possible, but more and more, there’s one or two buyers for a specific piece of material.”

Most scripts going out to buyers these days have been packaged in some way. “You might get lucky (going out with a ‘naked’ script,)” says manager Zach Cox from Circle of Confusion, “but more often than not, the response (from buyers) is going to be, hey, that’s really cool; come back to us with a package. Again, that’s not every time. If it’s timely or something like that, people will step up to the table and pay the money.”

Rincon notes that while you can certainly sell an unpackaged script, it may not be in the project’s best interest to do so. “If the material is strong enough to sell on its own, then it’s probably strong enough to get a good producer, director and some cast attached as well. And then, when you have that assembled, you’re not just talking about a piece of development; you now have a movie, and hopefully you’re negotiating progress-to-production language, instead of what the third polish step might be on your script.”

But Boxerbaum notes that while some buyers want to see a director or talent attached, others may prefer the material free and clear. “Every script is different. Some scripts will definitely have an advantage to have it packaged. So either internally or externally, whatever makes the most sense for the material, we’ll try to get the best people on it. If it helps the value of the script and the value of the project go up with the right package, sure.” For example, he says that tougher-sell projects may benefit from a strong package. “A period piece definitely would make much more sense to have someone attached. But on a high-concept comedy, it might make sense not to attach a director, because it might not be a director meaningful enough to move the needle on it.”

The Hard Sell

Another approach with more specific material is to take the time to find the right passionate advocate for it. Cox says he may “pick a list of like five or seven producers early to try and give them the motivation and to make them feel that they are the best places for this material,” he says. “In return, the expectation is, if they like the material, they will take the time to try and get a director or a piece of talent or what have you, to really find a home for this project and give it the best chance in the marketplace.” This can result in the right producer coming aboard, who can assemble a package or champion the project. “(Sometimes they’ll say,) ‘let us know if you get an offer.’ It’s not that they want to compete; it’s more like, let us know if you get an offer because then we are out, but if you don’t get an offer, then we might scrounge together an option payment.'”

Can you still play the spec market like it’s 1999 – going out with a script on a Friday, fielding offers on Monday? “David Boxerbaum from Verve is that guy,” says Wagner. “He plays the spec market like we all used to. Like, slip it to a couple of key players over the weekend. Get them liking it on Sunday so you know you have bites by Monday morning, and then use that to go to more; hopefully by Tuesday or Wednesday, it’s going into studios and you’re getting offers and you sell by the end of the week. It’s rare, but he’s able to do it, month in, month out.”

Boxerbaum’s special sauce? Elbow grease. “I get in there and I give notes and I go through drafts. I’m much more of a collaborator and a teammate when it comes to the actual process, rather than just taking things out into the marketplace.” And when it’s time to shop the material, Boxerbaum says, “it’s about knowing how to treat people. It’s knowing how to put material in the right hands, but also to have a sense of urgency behind it as well. I treat everything like there’s a ticking clock, and most of the time I think there is.”

Are You On The List?

Another arrow in the agent and manager’s quiver: the annual lists. Black List, Hit List, Blood List, and so on – making one of those lists is validation for a project and can be a valuable boost in cachet. “Most of these lists drop at the end of the year, and everyone is aware of that,” says Wagner. “A lot of times you do try to position these pieces to get on those lists by just getting the right people to read them that you’re keenly aware will vote. There have been many instances where we’re coming up to the end of the year and I’ve got something coming together; but as we start to get indications that it may be on (a) list, then I start to put that out there, and if it gets on the list then it really helps. It kind of blesses the project.”

Cox says while he wants his clients to be on the Blacklist, and he’ll send scripts to the tastemakers he knows, “I don’t actively go out there and campaign and do all of that kind of stuff. I think those lists have been around long enough that we all know that there is an element of politicking and maneuvering to get scripts on there.”

Perry keeps a grid tracking everything he sent out and the response to it. “With the ones that are overwhelmingly positive, come November or December or whenever people are voting on these lists, I don’t think it hurts to send out a one-sentence friendly reminder to say, hey, remember this one from back in February?” Making a list can give the project an extra boost, but there’s more to it as well. “It’s a point of pride for some writers who, 10 years ago, grew up looking at the Black List and reading those scripts and thinking ‘one day I want to be on there.'”

The Only Constant Is Change

To quote Monty Python, it appears that the spec market is, thankfully, not yet dead. “There is certainly still a market for specs,” says Rincon. “There are definitely still people who are looking for original material – always with an eye towards production rather than development. Obviously, that means the more thought-through, developed and fine-tuned the writing, the idea, the concept, the characters, the better.”

But with all the turmoil in the industry right now, will the spec market rebound be over before it’s begun? Wagner’s not too worried. “There’s always new companies popping up — film funds — and there always will be because people will always want to get into the movie business.”